Thinking in Bets

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In Super Bowl XLIX, Seahawks coach Pete Carroll made one of the most controversial calls in football history With 26 seconds remaining, and trailing by four at the Patriots one yard line, he called for a pass instead of a hand off to his star running back The pass was intercepted and the Seahawks lost Critics called it the dumbest play in history But was the call really that bad Or did Carroll actually make a great move that was ruined by bad luck Even the best decision doesn t yield the best outcome every time There s always an element of luck that you can t control, and there is always information that is hidden from view So the key to long term success and avoiding worrying yourself to death is to think in bets How sure am I What are the possible ways things could turn out What decision has the highest odds of success Did I land in the unlucky 10% on the strategy that works 90% of the time Or is my success attributable to dumb luck rather than great decision making Annie Duke, a former World Series of Poker champion turned business consultant, draws on examples from business, sports, politics, and of course poker to share tools anyone can use to embrace uncertainty and make better decisions For most people, it s difficult to say I m not sure in a world that values and, even, rewards the appearance of certainty But professional poker players are comfortable with the fact that great decisions don t always lead to great outcomes and bad decisions don t always lead to bad outcomes.By shifting your thinking from a need for certainty to a goal of accurately assessing what you know and what you don t, you ll be less vulnerable to reactive emotions, knee jerk biases, and destructive habits in your decision making You ll become confident, calm, compassionate and successful in the long run. New Read [ Thinking in Bets ] By [ Annie Duke ] – kino-fada.fr tl dr Acknowledge the omni presence of uncertainty in every decision we make, and recognize that everything is a bet even decisions we re very confident in.In poker, luck is acknowledged as a major factor in every hand If you have a 50% chance to win a 100 hand, it is a sound decision to bet anything under 50 on the hand Make this decision enough times, and you will eventually come out ahead spending anything less than the expected ROI 50 is net positive But we have trouble thinkin tl dr Acknowledge the omni presence of uncertainty in every decision we make, and recognize that everything is a bet even decisions we re very confident in.In poker, luck is acknowledged as a major factor in every hand If you have a 50% chance to win a 100 hand, it is a sound decision to bet anything under 50 on the hand Make this decision enough times, and you will eventually come out ahead spending anything less than the expected ROI 50 is net positive But we have trouble thinking this way in real life, Annie Duke argues We don t look too closely at our successes, chalking them up to our great skill at decision making, and we don t look too closely at our failures ...First half is basically Superforecasting recapSecond half isinteresting, with actionable techniques and tips to systematically improve decision makingThis is a fantastic book for understanding, identifying, and correcting biases in decision making, while also repeatedly separating the quality of a decision making process from its outcomes.I ve read quite dozens of pop science books on contemporary cognitive science And nearly all cover our predictably irrational cognitive biases But few offer effective strategies for overcoming our built in human failings But former poker champ and one time Penn State PhD candidate Annie Duke manages both in THINKING IN BETS I found the book captivating from the opening pages She uses Pete Carroll s infamous 2015 Super Bowl play call, a pass from the one yard line that the Patriots inter I ve read quite dozens of pop science books on contemporary cognitive science And nearly all cover our predictably irrational cognitive biases But few offer effective strategies for overcoming our built in human failings But former poker champ and one time Penn State PhD candidate Annie Duke manages both in THINKING IN BETS I found the book captivating from the opening pages She uses Pete Carroll s infamous 2015 Super Bowl play call, a pass from the one yard line that the Patriots intercepted with seconds to go, thus winning The media ripped the call as the worst play call ever But when seen rationally, the call was smart There had been 62 passes from the one yard in that year Zero had been intercepted The most likely outcomes were TD or incompletion, which would have stopped the clock allowing Seattle to an additional play over the alternative decision, t...Good Book but if you are already aware of the common human cognitive biases Influence by Caldini Charlie Munger s psychology of human misjudgement speech are good starts then it might be repetitive.Life is a constant betting game This is what Annie Duke s book suggests I can t agreefrom tiny everyday decisions to great life changing steps there s always a bet, for better or worse outcome Even when we think we re not betting, it is a bet in itself Pizza or salad for the dinner tonight, should I take that new job offer, ask out this girlfriend or wait for a potentially better one That s the constant game we play Each decision or lack of it has consequences, so we re trying Life is a constant betting game This is what Annie Duke s book suggests I can t ag...Th author discusses the topic of decision making and the probabilistic mindset that should be adopted The unnecessary repetitiveness made this book boring and longer than it should be.Great book on statistical thinking in business by a woman with a poker background and only a moderate ego, compared to a certain trader with a massive ego who has written about low probability high impact events The first part of the book isgeneral statistical thinking, but presented w...Our capacity for self deception has no boundaries There is no luck With a combination of learning and truth seeking, you can make better decisions in almost every area of your life.The content has little to do with the title If the book was called Introduction to probabilistic thinking , it would beappropriate and I would not have bought it It really got off to a good start A bad result does not have to be the result of a bad decision The world is not like playing chess, where there is practically no randomness involved At that time I thought to myself, the writer would introduce me to the subject and then go deeper Unfortunately, there is not muchdepth The content ha...

Thinking in Bets
  • 23 August 2017
  • Hardcover
  • 288 pages
  • 0735216355
  • Annie Duke
  • Thinking in Bets