Chances Are . . .

A layman s journey into the realm of probability from poker to politics, weather to war, Monte Carlo to mortality We search for certainty, but find only likelihood All things are possible, only one thing actually happens everything else is in the realm of probability The twin disciplines of probability and statistics underpin every modern science and sketch the shape of all purposeful group activity politics, economics, medicine, law, sports giving humans a handle on the essential uncertainty of their existence Yet while we are all aware of the hard facts, most of us still refuse to take account of probability preferring to drive, not fly buying into market blips smoking cigarettes denying we will ever ageThere are some people, though gamblers, risk buyers, forensic experts, doctors, strategists who find probability s mass of incomplete uncertainties delightful and revelatory Chances Are is their story Combining philosophical and historical background with portraits of the men and women who command the forces of probability, this engaging, wide ranging, and clearly written volume will be welcomed not only by the proven audiences for popular books like E MC2 and The Golden Ratio but by anyone interested in the workings of fate. New Download Chances Are . . . [ by ] Michael Kaplan [ Kindle ePUB or eBook ] – kino-fada.fr This book provides a tour through the world of chance and the role it plays in our lives and in the known history of the universe Probability can be expressed in mathematical and philosophical terms, and this book reviews those concepts but quickly moves on to easily understood discussion of the material.We are surro...This book struck my personal resonant frequency I found the anecdotes witty and engaging, the conclusions often insightful, and the underlying premise that life can best be appreciated as a motley collection of random events, the shape of which can be estimated with varying degrees of confidence but not quantified with certainty and that anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something fully in line with my own philosophy It further preached to this particular choir member by referen This book struck my personal resonant frequency I found the anecdotes witty and engaging, the conclusions often insightful, and the underlying premise that life can best be appreciated as a motley collection of random events, the shape of which can be estimated with varying degrees of confidence but not quantified with certainty and that anyone who tells you otherwise is selling something fully in line with my own philosophy It further preached to this particular choir member by referencing a number of anecdotes and authors that I had previously come across and enjoyed most notably Gerd Gigerenzer s discussion of doctors and breast cancer in Calculated Risks, which dramatically illustrates how use of frequencies out of 1,000 women between the ages of 40 and 50, 8 will have breast cancer, etc., leading up to a demonstration that the likelih...Like every other book about probability, it starts off with gambling and some historical anecdotes about famous European usually French mathematicians And don t get me wrong that s a nice classic approach for a reason But at the end, it was taking the role of probability in mixed strategy game theory and talking about how it applied to war and not just the prisoner s dilemma of the Cold War with stark choices around defection or ...Few of us have a good grasp of probability, as the good ol Monty Hall problem illustrates which is interesting, because that problem isn t covered in this book This is a very approachable book requiring little math skill, although there are a few sections with symbology that might look scary to the uninitiated Looks are deceiving It s pussycat stuff The reader is rewarded with a better awareness of the subject, which should be helpful when analyzing choices or evaluating the statements of Few of us have a good grasp of probability, as the good ol Monty Hall problem illustrates which is interestin...I would ve given it five stars, but if the focus is on giving information, then why does the paperback have no bibliography It just seems ridiculous to state things but give no backup for those of us who like reading where the facts came from ...Reading this out of my curiosity on how the world can be interpreted by probabilities and statistics Interesting narrative, but it didn t get on to me Will give it another try in the future, but this time I can t finish.I enjoyed the book It was sometimes a little long, but most of the stories were good I will say, though, that there were a few too many biblical references in a book on probability for my taste.This is a great over view of probability and the fall out that it caused, both in the math and in the wider world What it is not too good at is presenting the math itself The authors seem shy of laying out a formula with a description of what it means This might just be the endemic fear of publishers on the effects of an equation to diminish book sales but if that s the case what kind of demographic picks up a book about pop math, finds an equation in it, and...Nice and easy historical read on the topic of probability and statistics, written by two non technical historians The book is about the people and situations that brought these two topics to the forefront of science and almost everything else over the years The terminology is often loose or bordering on wrong technically speaking , but as a casual read it was a wonderful book that fills in many gaps and explained the chronology of these thoughts discoveries inventions.I particularly liked t Nice and easy historical read on the topic of probability and statistics, written by two non technical historians The book is about the people ...If you ever go gambling, always play the games that pit you against other people Never play any game that pits you against the house If you re curious about why this is, then read this book If not It s your money You do whatever you want.Most math history books talk about who did what when and how This is the history of Probability and Statistics It covers a great deal of the why as well as the what does it really...

• English
• 09 May 2018
Michael Kaplan
• Hardcover
• 336 pages
• 0670034878
• Michael Kaplan
• Chances Are . . .